Response to Chris Swanson, resident consultant, Rand Corporation, re criticism of CIABASE information showing the CIA's intelligence was faulty re, inter alia, the breakup and downfall of the Soviet Union. I believe it is most relevant to appreciate that Rand Corporation in the past is on record as being funded in part by the CIA. I assume Rand still services CIA contracts. Also it is quite relevant that there appears to be a swinging door relationship between the CIA's intelligence personnel and Rand's. In one case -- Team A and Team B, re Soviet intentions and capabilities - the Team B outside study showed a vastly stronger and more belligerent USSR than even the CIA's Team A. Team B, included Thomas Wolf of Rand Corporation. Team B's conclusions were leaked to the media and formed the basis for our appreciation of the Soviets and for the massive increase in the military budget. Please see last entries re this dispute. Please note that the references include information from a Senate Intelligence Committe Study - none from Newsweek's conventional Wisdom column. Note: There are many more references to these issues in CIABASE but to limit the size of the file I have made wholesale, but hopefully not subjective, deletions. Ralph McGehee CIABASE Bruce clarke in 81-82 Was head of directorate of intel. Casey thought CIA was not exploiting intel potential of corporations, think tanks, and Universities. Casey lured harry rowan, a key figure in RAND corporation to Head the national intel council, that coordinated the production of nies. Rowan's job to run estimates thru a dozen gvt agencies of the intel Community. Persico, j. (1991). Casey 219 From 46-91 Rand corporation founded 46 as joint project by air force and Douglas aircraft. Hqs in santa monica. Current budget $90 million. Rand's Major grants of over $100,000 from pentagon and CIA, as well as boeing, Citicorp, exxon, ibm, xerox etc. Z magazine mag 5/91 39 Rand corporation, 77-78 Report listed the CIA, office of dci, and defense Intel agency under category of "major sponsors of RAND research." Counterspy w 79 19 Indonesia, 65 For a discussion of U.S. role in the 65 indonesian coup see Fn bcas v15, #2 1983 p48. Details high-level discussions in which council Of foreign relations members, RAND advisors and CIA personnel identified Sections of of the indonesian military most likely to offer opposition to a Communist "take-over." Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars. Chile, 65-73 Camelot was a defense dept project in chile to study Subversion at all levels in a developing country. Plan attempted in chile In 65. Disclosures by alvaro bunster, provoked its failure. An ambitious Sociological investigation conceived to study the entire society to measure Capacity of people for revolution, etc. Pentagon the instigator under cover Of a contract with american university in washington, d.c. Project Cancelled but results achieved by other means. In 67 doctoral dissertation At ucla "military culture and organizational decline: a study of the Chilean army," by roy hansen, a researcher for +++ RAND corp++++ In 61-62 who was a consultant to same company from 62-65 and made 3 Trips to chile in 64-65. His analysis made on basis of questionaires put To chileans (many from military). Among questions asked: under what Circumstances...do you believe the military could take over gvt? Asked 38 Retired generals about their political beliefs - including when military Should intervene in politics. Asked details biographical questions Including info on relatives. Further details given. Uribe, a. (1975). The black book of american intervention in chile 25-29 U.s. Institute of peace (usip). Institutions receiving largest number of Grants from usip have been fletcher school of law and diplomacy, institute For foreign policy analysis at tufts university, school for advanced International studies at johns hopkins university and RAND. Other groups Receiving multiple or large grants between 87 and 89 included hoover Institution, james madison foundation, world without war council, and Institute for contemporary studies in san francisco. Resource center Groupwatch project Usip grantee george tanham headquartered at RAND corporation received a Grant of $45,000 to "examine islamic conflict/management resolution Theories and practices." tanham has received a similar grant from state Dept intel and research (inr) office to study the "islamic awakening" in Malaysia. A veteran of RAND corp since 1950s, tanham specializes in Counterinsurgency warfare strategy for asia. During vietnam war era he was Associate director of aid in saigon from 1964-65. More recently tanham has Worked on RAND contracts with office of under secretary of defense for Policy. In one report "countering covert aggression" tanham argues that the U.s. Must be prepared to overthrow "friendly" governments incapable of Resisting insurgencies. Z magazine summer 90 114 Usip grantee paul henze is RAND corporation scholar-spook. Henze snagged $25,000 from usip for study of conflict in horn of africa. Henze sandwiched His work for usip in between four RAND studies on ethiopia he prepared from 1985-89 for office of under secretary of defense for policy. Henze was CIA Liaison to nsc under president carter and CIA station chief in ethiopia in 69 and from 74-77 in turkey. He strongly supported turkish military coup of 80 and whitewashed serious human rights abuses there. Henze's best known op Was promotion of "plot to kill the pope" disinformation theme in which Would be assassin mehmet ali agca was painted as a soviet agent. In reality Agca was connected to CIA penetrated turkish fascist group, the gray Wolves. Z magazine summer 90 114 Usip grantee, alexander alexiev based at RAND corporation netted $29,400 to Study role of religion in ussr public peace campaigns. Alexiev's usip work Probably dovetailed nicely with his air force-backed RAND study on "the Soviet campaign against inf (intermediate range nuclear forces)." he blamed Widespread U.S. and European opposition to new nuclear weapons on soviet Manipulation. In his spare time, alexiev has worked with freedom research Foundation, a public relations project for "freedom fighters" in nicaragua, Afghanistan and angola, and with world anti-communist league (wacl), a Notorious meeting ground for fascists and death squad leaders worldwide. Z Magazine summer 90 114 Ussr, 91 Rand study to co-coincide with budget request of defense dept, Warns of major unrest and instability in ussr. Intelligence newsletter 3/13/91 3 Green berets adopt f-phase ops for assessing and fighting popular Insurgencies. Scheme devised by brian jenkins of RAND corp. 1st phase Insurgents battled with psywar and civic action. 2nd phase gvt uses police State measures such as restricted movement, concentration camps, curfews And roadblocks. 3rd phase involves crack down involving search and destroy Missions using troops trained by green berets. 4th phase martial law and if That fails a 5th phase invasion by U.S.Conventional forces. Counterspy 5/83 p36 Fiji, vanuatu, papua new guinea, tonga, 87-89 Rand's counterinsurgency Expert george tanham toured islands for defense dept. Warned of potential Ussr influence and urged continued assistance to labor unions thru Asian-american free labor institute (aafli) which in part funded by ned. Z Magazine mag 5/91 40 Military ci strategy. Cast in paper called "defense guidance". U.s. To Defeat low level aggression without direct confrontation. Must use special Forces. Defense guidance most impt. Aspect creation of special operations Command (soc) under command army at fort bragg. Soc marks first time ci Forces different branches military under single unified command. Discusses Creation air commandos, navy's sea, air, land teams - seals. Green berets. Rather than being guerrilla force became a counter guerrilla force. Think Tank RAND corporation developed detailed ci strategy in 82 Adopted as Working model by special forces. White, r.a. (1984). The morass 75-90 Southeast asia, 61-75 During war in sea, RAND trained ci operatives and Conducted dozens of classified and public studies on tactics. Z magazine Mag 5/91 40 Vietnam, 66-72 R. Komer rcvd grant from defense advanced project agency To study org and management of ci war. Komer worked with RAND corp. Rand Published his report "bureaucracy does its thing: institutional constraints On U.S./gvn performance in vn." concluded pacification war was a bad Investment to be written off. Gibson, j.w. (1986). The perfect war 315 Indonesia, 65 For a discussion of U.S.Role in the 65 indonesian coup see Fn bcas v15, #2 1983 p48. Details high-level discussions in which council Of foreign relations members, RAND advisors and CIA personnel identified Sections of of the indonesian military most likely to offer opposition to a Communist "take-over." p48 Temper program was a RAND project for all of latin america to determine Parameters of crisis thresholds and to plan response of pentagon and CIA. Tarasov, k., & zubenko, v. (1984). The CIA in latin america 105 Ussr. 57-59 Pres eisenhower created gaither commission headed by rowan Gaither, chairman of RAND, to study requirements for civil defense Especially bomb shelters. Wohlstetter not on gaither committee but gaither Report drew heavily on classified study on strategic vulnerability that he Supervised for RAND, updating earlier studies that said ussr bombers would Attack sac. William c. Foster called on nitze to help draft committee's Report entitled,"deterrence and survival in the nuclear age." report Concluded U.S.Deterrence and survival in jeopardy. A month before it Issued ussr launched sputnik. Gaither committee concluded, based on info From CIA and pentagon, that ussr would have a dozen operational icbms Within a year, and it would take U.S. 2-3 years to catch up. Talbott, s. (1988). The master of the game 66-8 Vietnam 66 Leon goure part of RAND office vn. Rand did motivation and Morale project. Rand formed teams of americans with vnese interpreters who Interviewed vc prisoners and defectors. There were 7 deserters for every Defector. Joe carrier, RAND's expert on vc defection. Adams, s. (1994). War Of numbers 47 Ussr, 76 Team a team b dci bush accepted the pfiab's request for outside Group experts to do its own study of soviet strategic programs using same Evidence of CIA analysts who wrote 76 nie. Bush appointed team b members With est. Reputations as hardliners suspicious of russia. Paul nitze who Had written most important cold war document nsc 68 in 1950, gen dan graham Former dir dia, thomas wolfe of RAND, critical of salt. Leader of group Harvard professor richard pipes. With such men it not surprising team b's Report reached conclusions almost diametrically opposed to CIA analysts. Team b report leaked to press. Report concluded soviet strategic buildup Over past 12 years was aggressive and would give ussr predominance and even Allow them to win a nuclear war. "The atlantic monthly", 11/82 101-102, Thomas powers Ussr, CIA, 47-92 Russia will open kgb archives to selected writers doing Series books on ops in west. Random house to do book on cuban missile Crisis. 2 other books to cover ops in england and U.S. In 50s and 60s. One Volume on assassination of trotsky. Each volume to be jointly produced by One U.S. And one russian writer. All kgb files to be severely filtered. Washington times 7/3/92 a9 Oversight, reporting obligations and funding restrictions U.S. Intel Community, sept 87 Review of intel law and congressional oversight Practices, RAND corp paper and cover letters by w. R. Harris submitted in Support of minority iran-contra report. Harris involved in drafting pres Carter's executive order governing intel community, and 80 intel oversight Act. Iran-contra affair. (Congress committees) 589-607 Ussr, 89-90 A ussr delegation of kgb met with retired CIA officials and Other american experts at RAND corp to discuss joint action by superpowers Against terrorism. Group made 30 recommendations. Apparently no intel Exchange now. Washington post 11/13/90 a4 Ussr, 89 A joint U.S.-soviet task force to prevent terrorism met on 25 Sep 89 at RAND corporation hq in santa monica, ca. Intelligence newsletter 10/25/89 1 Chile. Rand study "organizational decline of chilean armed forces" showed Concern of "decline" chilean army. This concern also evidenced in U.S. Handbooks for brazil in 64 and indonesia in 64, which appeared before Military coup and expressed concern re military's ability deal with Communist threat. Landis, f.s. (1975). Psychological warfare and media Operations in chile 1970-1973 130-1 Chile. Target of CIA. CIA and usia assisted selection army officers for Training in U.S. CIA has strong influence fort bragg and canal zone. Ideological content training is hard-sell anti-communism. During decade 10% Chilean armed forces came to U.S. For training. Rand study said it unusual Chilean officer reach elite status without foreign training, principally U.s. Landis, f.s. (1975). Psychological warfare and media operations in Chile 1970-1973 104 93 CIA staffing its national intel council (nic) with well-known foreign Policy heavyweights and seems to be expanding its turf as well. Enid Schoettle, formerly of ford foundation, is in line to head new office Called global issues that will consider such topics as environment, Migration, refugees, epidemics and world food supplies. This not an area Usually for spies, but intel community has emerged relatively unharmed so Far in budget war. CIA looking for new roles now that cold war is dead. Timothy e. Wirth of state dept wanted intel backup for his global issues Assignment. Already on council is c. Richard neu, and expert in International economics and health care. Neu, nic for economics, has been With RAND corp for last 10 years. Washington post 8/4/93 a15 Law. Reporting obligations and funding restrictions U.S. Intel community, Sept 87 Review intel law and congressional oversight practices, RAND corp Paper and cover letters by w. R. Harris submitted in support of minority Iran-contra report. Harris involved in drafting pres carter's executive Order governing intel community, and 80 Intel oversight act. Iran-contra Affair. (Congress committees) 589-607 95 Gregory f. Treverton, vice chairman of the national intel council, CIA's think tank, is returning to private sector. He to run RAND corps.'s Center for international security and defense policy in d.c. Washington Post 3/6/95 a15 Dci schlesinger served as dci for only 6 months, he reduced size of the Newly named ddo and made reductions in the analytic staff. Schlesinger had Gone from RAND corporation to omb, where he had directed "a review of the Intelligence community in 70-71." study resulted in renewed efforts to Enhance dci's community role. Lowenthal, m. (1992). The washington papers. U.s.intelligence evolution and anatomy 36 Ussr, 57 Gaither report, a major cold war document, prepared in 57 was a Product of an ad hoc civilian committee. H. Rowan gaither a west coast Lawyer who also on board of ford foundation and RAND corporation - names of Other members - most all were members of the foreign policy-making elite. Board drew on pentagon, CIA, and RAND. Report presented a frightening Picture of the ussr as spending 25% of gnp for defense while U.S. Spent Only 10%. Document secret but leaked to public. Detailed account by Chalmers roberts in the washington post of 12/10/57. Donovan, j. (1974). The cold warriors 130-147 51 Rand project feedback born 1951. In august 60 National Reconnaissance office (nro) created. Nro created as a national level Organization with air force, CIA and navy participation, air force role Substantial. To provide cover for nro, an office of missile and satellite Systems within office of secretary of air force est on 8/31/60. Richelson, J. (1990). America's secret eyes in space 8, 45-7 The use of balloon ops. Navy project skyhook began in 47 Moby dick Project prepared by RAND for air force in 53 Project given code name Genetrix. U.s. Trying position balloons over ussr in mid-jan 56 U.s. Launched balloons from turkey, germany, norway and scotland. 519 balloons Launched and only 47 recovered. Cover story genetrix altitude, World-girdling meteorological and survey project for weather research and Development. Balloons to chart jet stream and results known to all. Press Conference in ussr displayed 40 balloons and cameras and aerial photos. Communists protests over balloons. U-2 flights over ussr began 7/4/56. Military intelligence 3/89 27-8 Latin america, 51-69 Rand study "changing catholic church," forecast Political implications of liberation theology. Report prepared for state Dept intel. Z magazine mag 5/91 40 84 Secretary shultz called for an all-day seminar on terrorism. Brian Jenkins of RAND chaired session. Nsdd 138 then in preparation. U.s. Military deeply opposed to using military for counterterrorist ops. Joint Special operations command (jsoc), a group of commandos trained to rescue Americans held by terrorists but weinberger set such stringent conditions They would virtually never see action. Shultz, g. (1993). Turmoil and Triumph 645,650 Ussr, 89 A joint U.S.-soviet task force to prevent terrorism met on 25 Sep 89 at RAND corporation hq in santa monica, ca. Intelligence - a Computerized intelligence newsletter published in france 10/25/89 1 Rand corporation, guatemala. Rand attributed 60--82 Success of U.S. Trained guatemalan military - death squads to "the psychological impact of Terror tactics" from murder to indiscriminate napalming villages. Marshall, J., scott p.d., & hunter, j. (1987). The iran-contra connection 193 Ussr, U.S. 89 U.s.-soviet exchange on terrorism data urged. Retired U.S. And soviet experts meeting at RAND corp. Consider exchanging info between CIA/kgb. Washington post 9/29/89 a47 Chile, 70-73 Rand corporation sponsored studies of two groups chilean Society: women and farmers, the key elements opposed to allende. Pots and Pans demonstration from 1970 to 73 almost exclusively by middle class Women. Landis, f.s. (1975). Psychological warfare and media operations in Chile 1970-1973 71 From 46-91 Rand corporation founded 46 as joint project by air force and Douglas aircraft. Hqs in santa monica. Current budget $90 million. Funding From pentagon and CIA, as well as boeing, citicorp, exxon, ibm, xerox etc. Operates 3 out of 3 dozen "federally funded research and development Centers." includes national defense research institute, others. Now Researches low intensity conflict against 3 scenarios: against standing Gvts; armed revolutionary movements; and progressive peasant and labor Unions, churches, student and environmental groups. Z magazine mag 5/91 39-40 Reining in pentagon's think tanks, congress moves to cut budgets, ban Interlocking directorships. Talks about RAND and 10 other federally funded Research and development centers, called ffedcs, whose analysts, engineers And scientists (total 8500) design and evaluate weapon systems, select Nuclear targets and devise war-fighting strategies. Tanks type of shadow Pentagon with minimum congressional oversight. Centers inter alia: mitre Corp., institute for defense analysis (ida), center for naval analyses, Mit's lincoln laboratories, aerospace corp of los angeles. Washington post 7/28/91 h1,6 The RAND study and scouts at the national training center at fort irwin, Ca. 87 RAND study shows good intel almost always leads to mission success. Military intelligence 6/89 21 Vietnam, 64-68 Rand corporation - reports of; single integrated attack Team (siat) proposal; vc motivation and morale study. Senator gravel Edition, (1971). Pentagon papers subject index v 54 Vietnam, 60-63 By fall 60, vnese army has a file of names of over 100,000 Known vc or sympathizers. Scholars still uncertain how vc attained Extraordinary success in 60-63 Period. Two major themes - one stresses Dominate role of organizations, indoctrination, and technique in growth of Insurgency while other emphasizes economic, political and social grievances And disruption. Cites references for these theories. Numerous RAND studies Reflect both viewpoints. Spector, r. (1985) united states army in vietnam Advice and support: the early years 1941-1960 337-8 Vietnam, 66-67 Rand social scientists studied war. David elliot, in a Detailed account of one delta province, analyzed organization of nlf in Immense detail. Central to system were civilian and military cadres, women And men who served front in a variety of local leadership roles, from Village officials to assistant squad leaders. They were ideologically Committed to victory. Young, m. (1991). The vietnam wars 1945-1990 188 Ussr. As part of team b bush brings in zealous anti-soviet harvard Professor richard pipes who contends ussr "encourages and employs terrorism Because terrorism is handy relatively cheap weapon in arsenal to destroy Western societies." net effect of team b was to put forth view of soviet Global strategy, capabilities, designs for world hegemony, and willingness To use nuclear weapons much dimmer than assessments of team a. Washington Post 2/12/81 Ussr. Members of house of representatives wrote pres carter and brzezinski To disclaim cia estimates "as an attempt to present military capability Falsely and in worst possible light, in order to scare american people into Raising defense expenditures." nie 11/8, basic document for planning Defense budget, prepared by nixon and ford, as recommended by president's Foreign intel advisory board - robert murphy, gordon gray. William casey Proposed team a, with representatives from defense community, and team b Headed by richard pipes and charged team with using tactics of 58 gaither Report, that is, leaking their conclusions. Hoxie, r.g. (1977). Command Decision and the presidency 354-56 Ussr, 76 Team a team b dci bush accepted the pfiab's request for outside Group experts to do its own study of soviet strategic programs using same Evidence of cia analysts who wrote 76 nie. Bush appointed team b members With est. Reputations as hardliners suspicious of russia. Paul nitze who Had written most important cold war document nsc 68 in 1950, gen dan graham Former dir dia, thomas wolfe of rand, critical of salt. Leader of group Harvard professor richard pipes. With such men it not surprising team b's Report reached conclusions almost diametrically opposed to cia analysts. Team b report leaked to press. Report concluded soviet strategic buildup Over past 12 years was aggressive and would give ussr predominance and even Allow them to win a nuclear war. "The atlantic monthly", 11/82 101-102, Thomas powers Ussr, 76 In june 76 new dci g. Bush created team a team b concept for Competitive analysis of ussr's capabilities and intentions. This Administration's attempt to fend off challenge from right - particularly Ronald reagan. Impetus came from pfiab with edward teller and george Shultz. Pfiab influenced by albert wohlsetter. Professor russian history at Harvard, richard pipes, chaired team b. Other members team b were paul Wolfowitz and daniel graham formerly dir of dia. Team b went beyond charter And ended up prescribing a crash program of american buildup. It Reminiscent of gaither committee. Gaither committee report made in wake of Sputnik. Nitze a member of team b. He, eugene rostow, elmo zumwalt, richard Allen; and, max kampleman formed what eventually became committee on the Present danger - intellectual basis for committee grew out of work of team B. Talbott, s. (1988). The master of the game 145-7 Ussr, 76 National archives releases access to nie entitled "soviet forces For international conflict through mid-80's," (nie 11/3/8-76), vol I, key Judgments and summary, 12/21/76 (team a report), and commentary on estimate "Intel community experiment in competitive analysis - soviet strategic Objectives, and alternate view, report of team b," 12/76. National Intelligence book center bimonthly magazine surveillant 6/93 51 Ussr, 77 Gary hart writes "competitive analysis and use of selected Outside experts was little more than a camouflage for a polite effort to Force the nie to take a more bleak view of the soviet strategic threat... The pro-b team leak and public attack on conclusions of nie ...have been Aimed at fostering a `worst case' view for the public of the soviet threat. In turn, this view of soviet threat is used to justify new weapons Systems." team a team b report senate committee on intel 2/16/77 7-8